Global Satellite Launch Forecast (2024-2030)

How will the satellite market evolve in the coming years
 

In 2024 and 2025, a significant number of satellites are expected to be launched as part of the ongoing expansion of various satellite constellations. By 2025, it is estimated that as many as 1,100 satellites could be launched annually, a substantial increase from previous years​ (satelliteprome.com)​. Additionally, a broader forecast suggests that around 17,000 satellites are expected to be built and launched by 2030, indicating a continued high level of activity in satellite deployment over the next few years​ (satelliteprome.com)​. This includes contributions from major projects like SpaceX's Starlink and others aiming to expand global broadband and other services.

Upcoming major constellations 

1. Project Kuiper by Amazon:

• Number of Satellites: Amazon’s Project Kuiper plans to deploy a total of 3,236 satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) to provide global broadband coverage. The company aims to launch these satellites in stages, with a significant push to meet FCC requirements of deploying at least half of these by July 2026.
• Launch Providers: Amazon has partnered with multiple companies including Blue Origin, Arianespace, United Launch Alliance (ULA), and SpaceX for its launches. The first launches are scheduled to start in 2024 with ongoing deployments aimed to meet regulatory deadlines​ (SatelliteInternet.com)​​ (US About Amazon)​​ (SpaceNews)​​ (TechCrunch)​.
• Orbit: Low Earth Orbit (LEO), specifically at altitudes of approximately 590 km, 610 km, and 630 km.
• Satellite Size: The specific dimensions of Kuiper satellites have not been widely disclosed, but the constellation will include 3,236 satellites aimed at covering global broadband needs.
• Mission Application: Designed to provide high-speed, low-latency broadband services worldwide, with a particular focus on remote and underserved areas​ (starlinkinsider.com)​​ (Home of Telco & 5G News)​.

2. Starlink by SpaceX:

• Number of Satellites: Starlink has already launched over 1,300 satellites and plans to expand significantly. Initially approved for around 12,000 satellites, there's potential for a future expansion up to 30,000 satellites to enhance global internet coverage.
• Launch Provider: SpaceX utilizes its own Falcon 9 rockets for launching these satellites, with ongoing launches scheduled to expand and replenish the constellation​ (starlinkinsider.com)​​ (GeekWire)​.
• Orbit: Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
• Satellite Size: The next generation of Starlink satellites (Gen 2) are significantly larger than the first, nearly four times the weight of earlier versions, to support more advanced capabilities.

• Mission Application: Primarily focused on providing broadband internet globally, especially in underserved areas. The satellites are designed to be replaced every 5 to 6 years​ (starlinkinsider.com)​.

   

3. OneWeb:

• Number of Satellites: OneWeb aims to provide global coverage with an operational constellation of approximately 648 satellites. They've recently achieved a significant milestone that allows them to offer services worldwide, and launches continue to expand and maintain the network.
• Launch Providers: OneWeb has used a variety of launch providers, including partnerships with companies like Arianespace to deploy their satellites into orbit​ (starlinkinsider.com)​.
• Orbit: Low Earth Orbit (LEO)
• Satellite Size: Similar in scope and purpose to Starlink, OneWeb satellites are part of a constellation designed to provide global coverage, although specific dimensions are not detailed.
• Mission Application: Focuses on delivering broadband internet globally, targeting especially remote regions and underserved communities. After initial setbacks, it resumed launches with a significant number of satellites to complete its network​ (Home of Telco & 5G News)​​ (starlinkinsider.com)​.

From 2024 to 2030, the satellite market anticipates launching a wide range of satellites for various applications. The sizes and mission applications of these satellites are quite diverse, encompassing everything from communication and Earth observation to scientific research and national defense.

Launch Volume: Estimates suggest a range of future scenarios depending on market and technological developments. In a base case scenario, the industry might see around 4,000 to 5,000 satellite launches per year by 2030 to maintain a total of 27,000 active satellites in orbit. In higher demand scenarios, where nearly all proposed constellations materialize, annual launch needs could significantly increase, necessitating enhanced launch capabilities and infrastructure.

These satellites contribute to a variety of global efforts, from improving broadband access and mobile connectivity in isolated regions to enhancing our ability to monitor and respond to environmental crises. The evolving technology in satellite manufacturing and launch services, including the development of more sustainable and cost-effective launch options, is critical to supporting these diverse missions​ (McKinsey & Company)​​ (Euroconsult Digital platform)​​ (ITU)​.
satellite launches until now..
 

Satellite launches until now:

From 2024 to 2030, the satellite market is expected to see significant activity with different types of satellites being launched for various applications:

1. Overall Launch Volume: It's estimated that around 1,700 satellites will be launched on average each year up to 2030. This forecast considers both new market entrants and established players who are increasing their investment in space technology. This ramp-up in launches is part of the broader trend towards "Fast Space," focusing on the rapid deployment and operation of satellite constellations for diverse applications such as broadband communications and Earth observation​ (Novaspace, formerly Euroconsult)​.

2. Market Expansion and Applications: The total number of satellites to be ordered and launched by 2030 is projected to reach approximately 24,700. This substantial increase reflects the growing demand for satellite services across various sectors, including communication, Earth observation, and more specialized applications like meteorological monitoring and remote sensing​ (NSR)​.


3. Mission Applications:

• Communication: Many satellites are launched for broadband internet services, which dominate the satellite internet market. This sector is particularly significant, with the defense sector also playing a crucial role due to its reliance on satellite communications for a variety of military applications​ (MAXIMIZE MARKET RESEARCH)​.
• Earth Observation: This segment includes satellites used for environmental monitoring, disaster management, and agricultural applications. The market for Earth observation is driven by the need for real-time, global data to manage natural resources and respond to environmental changes​ (StraitsResearch)​​ (Research & Markets)​.
• Meteorological Satellites: These are used for weather forecasting and tracking environmental phenomena. The demand in this segment is particularly strong from government and defense sectors, which use these satellites for various operational purposes including planning and emergency response​ (Virtue Market Research)​.

4. Technological Developments: Advancements in satellite technology, such as improvements in satellite miniaturization, propulsion systems, and data handling capacities, are expected to continue driving the satellite market's growth. Innovations in launch services, including reusable launch vehicles, are also contributing to more cost-effective and frequent satellite deployments​ (Novaspace, formerly Euroconsult)​​ (NSR)​.

Source: Space Risk Update Year-End 2023, Christopher T.W. Kunstadter, Global Head of Space, AXA XL